The Sky is Not Falling

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It’s no secret I love a good international day, especially the lesser known ones that don’t come with their own celebrity endorsement (ack!). This month will see the celebration of World Population Day and that’s got me thinking about a few things.

When the earth’s population hit seven billion in 2011, the hand-wringing began. I was told gravely there were just “too many mouths to feed” and thus the planet faced imminent collapse. Or really soon, anyway. Like in 50 years. Talk continues to center on 'food scarcity', 'resource wars' and 'ecological collapse'.

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I still meet folks from the UK (population 63 million) or the US (319 million), who are staggered at Vietnam’s temerity in creating a population of 90 million, ignoring the fact its land mass is 22 percent larger than the UK’s and has far more land under irrigation. Yes, thinking about population also means thinking about countries that have skewed sex ratios at birth.

 

Vietnam’s is around 112 boys to 100 girls, but the UN Population Fund says based on field data this ratio is predicted to rise to 115 to 100. (The normal sex ratio at birth rate is 105 males to 100 females.) 

 

There remain strong cultural preferences for boys here and as such, although sex-selection abortion is ostensibly illegal, ultrasound is not. Within the next few decades a number of countries around the world will face a disturbing lack of brides for millions of men. That will certainly affect populations.

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Peaks and Troughs

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But the biggest reason I’m thinking about this international day is because frankly this many people on the planet is an achievement. We’re healthier and we live longer. The UN released a revised report (PDF) this year on the global population, stating:

 

"For example, one can say with a 95 per cent degree of confidence that global population will be between 8.4 and 8.6 billion in 2030 and between 9.5 and 13.3 billion in 2100. In other words, global population is virtually certain to rise in the short-to-medium term future. Later in the century, global population is likely to continue to rise, but there is roughly a 23 per cent chance that it could stabilize or begin to fall before 2100."

 

(The UN had earlier predicted that by about 2050, the world’s population growth would peak at around 10 billion and start declining.) 

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The report also acknowledges the 'degree of uncertainty' surrounding forecasting humans.

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However, the news is still positive. The UN estimates that:

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"Global fertility will fall from 2.5 children a woman in 2010-2015 to 2.4 in 2025-2030 and 2.0 [children] in 2095-2100.

 

"Steep declines are also projected for the world’s least-developed countries, with the average dropping from 4.3 in 2010-2015 to 3.5 in 2025-2030, and 2.1 in 2095-2100."

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Why? Because it already has in many parts of the world. In other words, getting old is what we’re doing, not making babies (sure some are, but not all of us). That all has to do with fertility and replacement rates. Countries like Tunisia, Brazil and Thailand are experiencing fertility rates below their population replacement rates. Countries like Japan, Germany or Ukraine are already experiencing shrinking populations. China's is forecast to decline 2% by 2050.

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How did this happen? Population issues are poverty issues. When we focus attention and resources on the education, health and reproductive rights of adolescent girls and women (and boys and men), they are better able to make informed choices that can and do transform their communities. This means things like jobs, media literacy and reduced infant mortality. Population is important, but where we’re at is not a call to panic. Sure it’s easier to feed a billion less people than a billion more, but we are not seven billion hunter-gatherers either. Scarcity and famine are acts of political will.

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Humanity has consistently adapted to and thrived in its environment, making better use of agricultural outputs.

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More education means people make better choices about their food supply chains, their environment and their use (or not) of resources, such as water.

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All those doomsday prophets who predict a world collapse will continue to wait for the apocalypse. Only, they’ll be waiting a long time.

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Other sources:

“Lies, damned lies, and Lysistrata: A superior—but, sadly, slower—way of measuring fertility,” The Economist, July 23, 2015 (online edition) / paywall

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“The birth-pangs of a policy: It is agonising to watch, but a new European approach to migration may slowly be emerging,” The Economist, July 23, 2015 (online edition) / paywall

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This article originally appeared in Word Vietnam magazine and has been adapted. To view the magazine’s online version click here.

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